Finish time predictor
For 8-run, 8-station hybrid fitness races. The estimate updates as you type.
A 25:00 5 km runner with solid stations typically finishes an 8-run, 8-station race in about 1:22:43–1:33:09 (Men Open, big race venue): roughly 47:12 running, 31:50 on the stations and 8:02 in the roxzone. Enter your own running time and rate each station below for your estimate.
Your running
Your stations
1 = new to it, 3 = solid, 5 = very strong. Rate each at the weights you will race.
Your predicted finish
Central estimate 1:27:04. Race run pace 5:54/km (18% slower than fresh).
Station times
- SkiErg4:25
- Sled Push2:55
- Sled Pull3:30
- Burpee Broad Jumps4:30
- Row4:25
- Farmers Carry2:05
- Sandbag Lunges4:30
- Wall Balls5:30
| # | Run | Station | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:33 | SkiErg | 4:25 |
| 2 | 5:50 | Sled Push | 2:55 |
| 3 | 5:58 | Sled Pull | 3:30 |
| 4 | 5:54 | Burpee Broad Jumps | 4:30 |
| 5 | 5:54 | Row | 4:25 |
| 6 | 5:58 | Farmers Carry | 2:05 |
| 7 | 6:05 | Sandbag Lunges | 4:30 |
| 8 | 6:01 | Wall Balls | 5:30 |
Plus about 1:00 of roxzone per station. This is an estimate from a simple fixed model, not a guarantee. Want a plan for a target time instead? Try the pace calculator.
How each split compares
- Run 15:33/km5:33faster than 2%typical 4:51 · at 6:03
- SkiErg4:25faster than 70%typical 4:33 · at 10:58
- Run 25:50/km5:50faster than 1%typical 4:58 · at 17:19
- Sled push2:55faster than 57%typical 3:02 · at 20:44
- Run 35:58/km5:58faster than 1%typical 5:05 · at 27:11
- Sled pull3:30faster than 98%typical 4:59 · at 31:11
- Run 45:54/km5:54faster than 3%typical 5:11 · at 37:36
- Burpee broad jumps4:30faster than 90%typical 5:40 · at 42:36
- Run 55:54/km5:54faster than 5%typical 5:18 · at 49:00
- Row4:25faster than 97%typical 4:52 · at 53:55
- Run 65:58/km5:58faster than 7%typical 5:25 · at 1:00:23
- Farmers carry2:05faster than 60%typical 2:10 · at 1:02:58
- Run 76:05/km6:05faster than 8%typical 5:32 · at 1:09:32
- Sandbag lunges4:30faster than 87%typical 5:21 · at 1:14:32
- Run 86:01/km6:01faster than 17%typical 5:39 · at 1:21:04
- Wall balls5:30faster than 90%typical 7:00 · at 1:27:04
- Roxzone (all transitions)8:02faster than 33%typical 7:17
Spread and "faster than" from 32,749 finishers around 1:27:00.
Example predictions by 5 km time
Solid (level 3) stations, big race venue, singles. Range is 5% faster to 7% slower than the central time.
| 5 km time | Men Open | Women Open |
|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | 1:08:12–1:16:49 | 1:10:39–1:19:35 |
| 20:00 | 1:12:21–1:21:29 | 1:14:48–1:24:15 |
| 22:00 | 1:16:29–1:26:09 | 1:18:57–1:28:55 |
| 25:00 | 1:22:43–1:33:09 | 1:25:10–1:35:56 |
| 28:00 | 1:28:56–1:40:10 | 1:31:23–1:42:56 |
| 32:00 | 1:37:13–1:49:30 | 1:39:41–1:52:16 |
How the estimate works
- Fresh 1 km pace = your 5 km time ÷ 5.
- Race run pace = fresh pace × 1.24 if you rate every station 1, falling evenly to × 1.12 at 5. Pro weights add 0.02; doubles takes 0.03 off.
- Run 1 is the quickest and runs 7 and 8 the slowest (a fixed shape that averages to your race pace).
- Each station uses a typical time for your rated level at Open men's weights, then a fixed adjustment for women's and Pro weights. Doubles stations take 55% of the singles time.
- Roxzone per station = 5 s plus about 120 m (big venue) or 20 m (gym sim) at 1.3 × your race pace.
- The range is 5% faster to 7% slower than the central time.
The coefficients are fixed and written by hand from general coaching experience. They are not taken from any race results database, so treat the result as a starting point. The spread rows compare your splits with aggregated percentiles of finishers around your predicted time (no individual results). To get real numbers, race a gym sim near you, or read the race guides.
Last updated by Hybrid Racing Platform.
Questions
How is the finish time predicted?
Your 5 km time gives a fresh 1 km pace. Race runs are slower than that because you run straight off each station, so the pace is multiplied by 1.12 to 1.24 depending on how strong you rate your stations. Each station gets a typical time for your rated level, adjusted for division loads, and the transitions are added on top. The model and every coefficient are listed on this page.
How accurate is the prediction?
It is an estimate, shown as a range of about 5% faster to 7% slower than the central time. Pacing, how you handle the heavy sleds on the day, the venue and the crowd all move the real number. The best way to get your true time is to race a full sim with every split timed.
How much slower are race runs than my 5 km pace?
Most people run each 1 km in a race 12% to 25% slower than their fresh 5 km pace. Runners with strong stations sit at the low end because they arrive at each run less tired; people who find the sleds, lunges or wall balls hard sit at the high end.
What is the roxzone?
The roxzone is the transition area: the walk or jog from the run lap into each station and back out. In a big exhibition-hall race it can add 5 to 10 minutes in total. In a gym sim the stations sit next to the running route, so it is often well under 2 minutes.
What does "faster than 60%" mean?
Each run, station and the roxzone is shown against the spread of finishers whose total time is around your predicted finish. "Faster than 60%" means your predicted split beats 60% of them, so you can see which parts of your race are strengths and which cost you time. Doubles show an estimated spread from the model.
Does doubles take half the time?
No. Both partners run all 8 km together, so the runs are barely quicker. Only the station work is shared, and with changeovers that comes out at a little over half the singles station time.
Test it on a real course
A sim at a gym near you runs the full 8 runs and 8 stations with every split timed, so you get your real numbers instead of an estimate. A free account keeps every result and shows where your time goes.